THE RESPONSE OF BRICS TRADE INTEGRATION TO GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

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Published Jan 1, 2024
https://doi.org/10.21098/jcli.v3i1.180


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Vol. 3 No. 1 (2024)

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Dr Kazi Sohag
Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, Russian Federation
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0976-2357
Md Monirul Islam
Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, Russian Federation
Oleg Mariev
Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, Russian Federation

Abstract

Mounting geopolitical risks have led over time to a reorientation of trade integrations across different economic blocs. As one of the increasingly dominant global blocks, the organisation comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) has intensified their trade integration. Therefore, we conducted a thorough analysis of how BRICS countries’ multilateral trade integration responded to geopolitical risk events from January 1996 to December 2021. To achieve this, we utilized a sophisticated econometric method, specifically the cross-quantilogram approach, to analyse high frequency data due to their non-normal and fat-tailed features. Our study confirms the proposition that geopolitical risks strengthened trade integration within the BRICS bloc. Specifically, our findings show that the volume of exports from one economy to another responded positively at lower to medium quantiles of exports and lower geopolitical risks, considering a 12–36-month horizon. Moreover, we found that the quantity of exports from Russia to China was higher in the presence of higher geopolitical risks. Our study demonstrates that geopolitical risks can create a sense of shared identity and mutual interest among the BRICS countries, fostering greater cooperation and trade integration.

Keywords: trade integration, cross-quantilogram approach, BRICS bloc

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Author Biography

Dr Kazi Sohag, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, Russian Federation

Dr Kazi Sohag is an Associate Professor and Head of the PhD Program at the Graduate School of Economics Management, Ural Federal University, Russian Federation. Kazi Sohag is also head of the Laboratory for International and Regional Economics. He was an adjunct research fellow at the School of Commerce, University of Southern Queensland, Australia. Besides, Dr Kazi is an associated research fellow at Accounting Research Institute, UiTM, Malaysia. He is an External Researcher at, the Center of Research Excellence in Renewable Energy and Power Systems, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Dr Kazi is a contributing author of IPCC Working Group III under UNFCCC. He has been appointed by the University of Merdeka, Malang as a Visiting professor under the World Class Professor Program (WCP) 2021 by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Research and Technology, Indonesia. He obtained a PhD in Environmental Economics from the National University of Malaysia in 2017. Kazi Sohag received a diploma in Global VAR Modeling using the GVAR from the Czech University of Life Sciences, Czech Republic 2019 and Energy and Environmental CGE Modeling with GAMS, from EcoMod, Singapore, in 2015. According to RePEc, Kazi Sohag is among the top 100 young economists in the world. He is also the top second economist in Russia (based on the last ten years publications). Kazi Sohag is a regular reviewer of more than 50 high impact journals. His H-index is 23, where the total citation is more than 3600. He delivered numerous public lectures and keynote speeches around the globe. Dr Kazi is awarded several international research grants from different countries, including Russia, Iran, Malaysia, Kosovo, UAE, Indonesia and KSA. 

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